I figured out what the problem was and it was totally do to pilot error.
I had copied all the properties files from my dev setup including the new setup wizard properties file.
It sets the liferay home directory to what I had in dev, which is different from what I have for staging.
Liferay dutifully built the data folder in that directory and that's where I found my files. Duh!
Changing the liferay home in the properties file to what it should be for staging and moving the data folder to the same fixed my issue.
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